Economic Evaluation of Tirbanibulin for the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Tirbanibulin 1% ointment is a new treatment for actinic keratosis (AK) on the face or scalp. A health economic model was developed as part of a submission to the Scottish Medicines Consortium to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tirbanibulin compared to the most frequently prescribed treatments. METHODS: A decision tree approach was used to calculate the costs and benefits of different treatment strategies for AK on the face or scalp over a one-year time horizon. Data on the relative efficacy of treatments, which were based on the probability of complete clearance of AK, were obtained from a network meta-analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the model results. RESULTS: Tirbanibulin is estimated to be cost saving versus diclofenac sodium 3%, imiquimod 5% and fluorouracil 5%. Tirbanibulin remains cost saving when inputs are varied in sensitivity and scenario analyses. While the complete clearance rates are deemed similar across comparators, tirbanibulin is associated with a lower rate of severe local skin reactions, and a shorter treatment duration, which may improve treatment adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Tirbanibulin is a cost saving intervention for the treatment of AK from the perspective of the Scottish Healthcare System.

Cost analysis of lurasidone for the treatment of schizophrenia in adolescents and adults within the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is a serious mental health condition characterised by distortions in thought processes, perception, mood, sense of self, and behaviour. Lurasidone, a second-generation atypical antipsychotic, represents an additional treatment option alongside existing antipsychotics for adolescents and adults with schizophrenia. An economic model was developed to evaluate the incremental costs of lurasidone as a first-line treatment option compared to existing antipsychotics. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost impact of lurasidone as a first-line treatment option for both adolescents and adults. The sequence-based model incorporated the following health states: stable (no relapse or discontinuation), discontinuation (due to adverse events or other reasons), and relapse. Data used to determine the movement of patients between health states were obtained from network meta-analyses (NMAs). The time horizon ranged from three to five years (depending on the patient population) and a six-weekly cycle length was used. Unit costs and resource use were reflective of the UK NHS and Personal Social Services and consisted of the following categories: outpatient, adverse events, primary and residential care. Extensive deterministic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess the level of uncertainty associated with the base case results. RESULTS: Lurasidone is demonstrated to be cost-saving as a first-line treatment within the adolescent and adult populations when compared to second-line and third-line respectively. Lurasidone is more expensive in terms of treatment costs, resource use (in the stable health state) and the treatment of adverse events. However, these costs are outweighed by the savings associated with the relapse health state. Lurasidone remains cost-saving when inputs are varied in sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Lurasidone is a cost-saving first-line treatment for schizophrenia for both adolescents and adults.

An anchored matching-adjusted indirect comparison of fixed-dose combination calcipotriol and betamethasone dipropionate (Cal/BDP) cream versus Cal/BDP foam for the treatment of psoriasis.

OBJECTIVES: To undertake a comparison of Cal/BDP cream versus foam for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, with cross-trial population differences accounted for. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An anchored matching-adjusted indirect comparison was undertaken, using individual patient data for Cal/BDP cream and published aggregated data for Cal/BDP foam. Altogether, 11 outcomes were analyzed, including PGA success, mPASI75, DLQI-related outcomes and treatment satisfaction across numerous domains. For each outcome an odds ratio or mean difference was calculated to represent the relative efficacy of Cal/BDP cream versus foam. Methods were guided by NICE Decision Support Unit recommendations. RESULTS: After adjustment, baseline characteristics were balanced across treatment arms in each analysis. There were no statistically significant differences in PGA success, mPASI75 or DLQI outcomes between Cal/BDP cream and foam when they were compared after their recommended treatment durations (8 weeks for cream and 4 weeks for foam). For treatment satisfaction after 1 week of treatment, Cal/BDP cream was significantly superior to the Cal/BDP foam in all but one domain of the questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS: Cal/BDP cream and Cal/BDP foam have equivalent efficacy and HRQoL (measured in DLQI) outcomes when used for the topical treatment of plaque psoriasis at their recommended treatment durations. A comparison of treatment satisfaction assessments after 1 week of treatment demonstrated that patients find Cal/BDP cream to be more convenient than foam.

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.

The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. METHODS: We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older. INTERPRETATION: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Building a global schistosomiasis alliance: an opportunity to join forces to fight inequality and rural poverty.

Schistosomiasis, one of the 17 neglected tropical diseases listed by the World Health Organization, presents a substantial public health and economic burden. Of the 261 million people requiring preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis in 2013, 92% of them lived in sub-Saharan Africa and only 12.7% received preventive chemotherapy. Moreover, in 2010, the WHO reported that schistosomiasis mortality could be as high as 280 000 per year in Africa alone.In May 2012 delegates to the sixty-fifth World Health Assembly adopted resolution WHA65.21 that called for the elimination of schistosomiasis, and foresees the regular treatment of at least 75% of school age children in at-risk areas. The resolution urged member states to intensify schistosomiasis control programmes and to initiate elimination campaigns where possible.Despite this, in June 2015, schistosomiasis was indicated to have the lowest level of preventive chemotherapy implementation in the spectrum of neglected tropical diseases. It was also highlighted as the disease most lacking in progress. This is perhaps unsurprising, given that it was also the only NTD with access to drug donations but without a coalition of stakeholders that collaborates to boost commitment and implementation.As a consequence, and to ensure that the WHO NTDs Roadmap Targets of 2012 and World Health Assembly Resolution WHA65.21 are met, the Global Schistosomiasis Alliance (GSA) has been set up. Diverse and representative, the GSA aims to be a partnership of endemic countries, academic and research institutions, international development agencies and foundations, international organizations, non-governmental development organizations, private sector companies and advocacy and resource mobilisation partners. Ultimately, the GSA calls for a partnership to work for the benefit of endemic countries by addressing health inequity and rural poverty.